Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelion Esport Clubloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 18 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 15 games
Bane
zzq · 12 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Echo · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 8 games
Dandelion Esport Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 462 bans
Mars
434 picks · 678 bans
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 529 bans
Bane
395 picks · 269 bans
Puck
365 picks · 833 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 563 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 637 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Dandelion Esport Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:42
EHOME 52%Dandelion Esport Club 48%
The model gave 52% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 1:04:13.
Game 2prediction correct28:13
EHOME 52%Dandelion Esport Club 48%
The model gave 52% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 52%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2