Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Feltwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Techies
bgod · 9 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Felt
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 11 games
Axe
Zore · 9 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Zore · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
solji · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 461 bans
Mars
433 picks · 680 bans
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 529 bans
Bane
395 picks · 272 bans
Puck
362 picks · 832 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 562 bans
Ember Spirit
332 picks · 635 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Felt
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:36
The Cut 51%Felt 49%
The model gave 51% on The Cut — the game was taken by Felt in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
BristlebackStoneBank
NecrophosRajjix
Pucksolji
Void Spirithigh_shaggy
DawnbreakerZore
JakiroJubei
Shadow DemonShoe
MarciAfrOmoush
Game 2prediction correct37:19
The Cut 52%Felt 48%
The model gave 52% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRajjix
Phantom AssassinStoneBank
BristlebackScourge McDuck
TimbersawZore
Puckhigh_shaggy
Void Spiritsolji
SnapfireJubei
HoodwinkShoe
WindrangerAfrOmoush
Game 3prediction correct39:37
The Cut 49%Felt 51%
The model gave 51% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawRajjix
Monkey KingStoneBank
Void Spirithigh_shaggy
Templar Assassinsolji
SpectreScourge McDuck
WeaverZore
SnapfireJubei
DazzleShoe
MarciAfrOmoush
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 53%
Series resultFelt 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3