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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 19 games
53%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 14 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 13 games
46%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
waveformn · 12 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 11 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 9 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
661 picks · 822 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 591 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 407 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
467 picks · 314 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1074 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 694 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 621 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
381 picks · 990 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:33
VP.Prodigy 61%Winter Bear 39%
The model gave 61% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
Brewmastertakizawa
47% · 152 games50% · 359 games
Windrangerpaw
Windranger
Muerta
Muertacutie
47% · 256 games55% · 544 games
Ember SpiritPanda
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckSerenada
49% · 444 games50% · 244 games
AxefortniteMan
Axe
Tiny
Tinyraregods
48% · 640 games54% · 139 games
Nyx Assassinwaveformn
Nyx Assassin
Warlock
WarlockJANTER
50% · 582 games51% · 788 games
JakiroDelight
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct38:18
VP.Prodigy 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavercutie
43% · 168 games52% · 292 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Underlord
Underlordtakizawa
48% · 294 games54% · 161 game
Shadow Fiendpaw
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSerenada
44% · 241 game54% · 250 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
Dazzleraregods
45% · 237 games59% · 226 games
Shadow DemonDelight
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixJANTER
51% · 338 games50% · 349 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct59:17
VP.Prodigy 62%Winter Bear 38%
The model gave 62% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordtakizawa
50% · 231 game49% · 101 game
Lunapaw
Luna
Razor
Razorcutie
48% · 166 games52% · 365 games
BeastmasterPanda
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSerenada
43% · 322 games55% · 390 games
BatriderfortniteMan
Batrider
Tiny
Tinyraregods
41% · 506 games47% · 609 games
JakiroDelight
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
49% · 357 games65% · 117 games
Treant Protectorwaveformn
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 73%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3