?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 18 games
28%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 15 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
31%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 11 games
64%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 8 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Giant · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
red2 · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 459 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 681 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 528 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
395 picks · 272 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 832 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 564 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 635 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
330 picks · 659 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:2
Wildcard Gaming 53%5RATFORCESTAFF 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 19:27.
Game 2prediction missed24:44
Wildcard Gaming 53%5RATFORCESTAFF 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 41:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 53%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2