Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 460 bans
Mars
435 picks · 681 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 529 bans
Bane
397 picks · 273 bans
Puck
362 picks · 834 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 637 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:39
Alliance 42%Entity 58%
The model gave 58% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 39:11.
Game 2prediction correct12:56
Alliance 42%Entity 58%
The model gave 58% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 33:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 58%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2