Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Goonsquadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 14 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
553 picks · 460 bans
Mars
434 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 529 bans
Bane
398 picks · 274 bans
Puck
362 picks · 829 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 566 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 637 bans
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 55%
Hero pool strength63% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Tundra Esports 59%Goonsquad 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:27.
Game 2prediction correct31:16
Tundra Esports 59%Goonsquad 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2