Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 9 games
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
556 picks · 461 bans
Mars
436 picks · 689 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 534 bans
Bane
398 picks · 276 bans
Puck
360 picks · 830 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 573 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 662 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 643 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:29
Entity 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:54.
Game 2prediction missed18:32
Entity 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2