Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 18 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 18 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 16 games
Bane
RR · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 12 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 12 games
Grimstroke
RR · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
552 picks · 463 bans
Mars
437 picks · 688 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 537 bans
Bane
398 picks · 277 bans
Puck
358 picks · 829 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 576 bans
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 663 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 641 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:26
Lilgun 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Execration in 35:06.
Game 2prediction missed41:22
Lilgun 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Execration in 41:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2