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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tempestloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
55%
Bane
Banesignature
Prada · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Mariano · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Genek · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Genek · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Prada · 5 games
20%

Tempest

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 462 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 684 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 539 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
397 picks · 276 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 825 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 575 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 639 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 660 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:28
Infamous 62%Tempest 38%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by Tempest in 36:45.
Game 2prediction missed19:38
Infamous 62%Tempest 38%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by Tempest in 34:57.
Game 3prediction missed37:43
Infamous 62%Tempest 38%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by Tempest in 41:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 62%
Series resultInfamous 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3