Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
550 picks · 464 bans
Mars
440 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 541 bans
Bane
397 picks · 277 bans
Puck
358 picks · 824 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 576 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 640 bans
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:17
HellRaisers 53%PuckChamp 47%
The model gave 53% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 29:09.
Game 2prediction missed15:31
HellRaisers 53%PuckChamp 47%
The model gave 53% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 38:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 53%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2