Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 9 games
Weaversignature
Pyw · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
549 picks · 460 bans
Mars
440 picks · 688 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 541 bans
Bane
396 picks · 278 bans
Puck
355 picks · 816 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 577 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 637 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Royal Never Give Up 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:14.
Game 2prediction missed36:12
Royal Never Give Up 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 54%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2