Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
545 picks · 459 bans
Mars
438 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 541 bans
Bane
395 picks · 278 bans
Puck
354 picks · 813 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 577 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 634 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Wolf Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
Wolf Team 45%Hokori 55%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 52:23.
Game 2prediction correct22:30
Wolf Team 45%Hokori 55%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 32:19.
Game 3prediction correct44:21
Wolf Team 45%Hokori 55%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 50:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 55%
Series resultWolf Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3