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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 18 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 18 games
78%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
88%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 13 games
92%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 12 games
100%

Infinity Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 13 games
38%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 13 games
38%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Benny · 11 games
27%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cys · 11 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 7 games
57%
Bane
Bane
Nuages · 6 games
17%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 458 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 685 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 541 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 278 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 812 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 576 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 633 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 658 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 39%
Hero pool strength71% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:17
Thunder Awaken 62%Infinity Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:54.
Game 2prediction correct37:19
Thunder Awaken 62%Infinity Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 62%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2