Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
YNTwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
541 picks · 459 bans
Mars
436 picks · 686 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
Bane
393 picks · 280 bans
Puck
353 picks · 812 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 577 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 630 bans
Storm Spirit
333 picks · 530 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% MooN team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
MooN team 67%YNT 33%
The model gave 67% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 30:32.
Game 2prediction missed22:39
MooN team 67%YNT 33%
The model gave 67% on MooN team — the game was taken by YNT in 54:00.
Game 3prediction missed24:23
MooN team 67%YNT 33%
The model gave 67% on MooN team — the game was taken by YNT in 31:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 67%
Series resultYNT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3