Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Tiny
jAMES · 25 games
Clockwerk
jAMES · 20 games
Bane
633 · 19 games
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Snapfire
633 · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 12 games
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 15 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 15 games
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 11 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
Bane
Hduo · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
543 picks · 458 bans
Mars
439 picks · 684 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
Bane
394 picks · 280 bans
Puck
352 picks · 809 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 578 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 626 bans
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% cybercats
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:33
Team Empire 51%cybercats 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 1:08:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut7jesu
AlchemistEgor
ZeusSquad1x
SlarkShigetsu
BeastmasterShachlo
Sand KingDkFogas
MiranajAMES
JakiroHduo
Winter Wyvern633
HoodwinkFezor
Game 2prediction correct24:40
Team Empire 49%cybercats 51%
The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Razor7jesu
VisageDkFogas
DawnbreakerShachlo
Void SpiritEgor
MarcijAMES
DoomFezor
Io633
DisruptorHduo
Game 3prediction missed8:31
Team Empire 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Empire — the game was taken by cybercats in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa7jesu
WeaverShigetsu
KunkkaSquad1x
ZeusEgor
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
UnderlordDkFogas
Dawnbreaker633
HoodwinkFezor
MiranajAMES
ClockwerkHduo
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 51%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3