Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Techies
bgod · 9 games
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Overlom · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
541 picks · 454 bans
Mars
442 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 544 bans
Bane
394 picks · 280 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 582 bans
Puck
348 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 539 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 24%
Hero pool strength54% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
Quincy Crew 65%The Cut 35%
The model gave 65% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by The Cut in 37:13.
Game 2prediction missed30:6
Quincy Crew 65%The Cut 35%
The model gave 65% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by The Cut in 21:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 65%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2