Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 10 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 9 games
Necrophossignature
zai · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
536 picks · 453 bans
Mars
447 picks · 684 bans
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 541 bans
Bane
393 picks · 281 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 587 bans
Puck
345 picks · 804 bans
Storm Spirit
336 picks · 545 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:27
Team Liquid 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:27.
Game 2prediction missed30:7
Team Liquid 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2