Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 21 game
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
Bane
Muka · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
Pugnasignature
Zayac · 15 games
PSG Quest
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 14 games
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 12 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 11 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 8 games
Iosignature
Eixn · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
534 picks · 453 bans
Mars
447 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 541 bans
Bane
393 picks · 281 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 586 bans
Puck
345 picks · 802 bans
Storm Spirit
336 picks · 545 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
Hydra 59%PSG Quest 41%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightAskold
Void SpiritNo!ob
Winter Wyvernkickeed
ClockwerkEixn
41% · 115 games
TinyOmaR
Game 2prediction missed39:43
Hydra 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 56:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusAskold
ViperNo!ob
Abaddonkickeed
SnapfireEixn
42% · 58 games
TinyOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 67%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2