Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 11 games
Tiny
Mac · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
534 picks · 454 bans
Mars
447 picks · 681 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
Bane
394 picks · 281 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 585 bans
Puck
343 picks · 803 bans
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 546 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:30
Fnatic 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 19:43.
Game 2prediction correct27:35
Fnatic 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 42:00.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 55%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2