Brame vs Team Bald Reborn — prediction DPC2S—ЗЕ 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Brameloss 1:2

series probability

55%45%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Shadow Shamansignature

SsaSpartan · 13 games

77%

Vipersignature

SkyLark · 13 games

62%

Beastmasteroften banned

SkyLark · 12 games

33%

Dragon Knightsignature

ThuG · 11 games

64%

Sand Kingoften banned

SkyLark · 11 games

45%

Wraith Kingoften banned

Focus · 11 games

36%

Mirana

dEsire · 10 games

30%

Phantom Assassinoften banned

Nefrit · 10 games

50%

Team Bald Reborn

Juggernautsignature

Gorgc · 15 games

67%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Excalibur · 13 games

46%

Tiny

Excalibur · 12 games

58%

Pangolieroften banned

Rajjix · 10 games

40%

Snapfiresignature

Pablo · 10 games

60%

Grimstroke

bengan · 8 games

50%

Marsoften banned

ZipZaper · 8 games

50%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Excalibur · 8 games

25%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

529 picks · 454 bans

50%

Mars

459 picks · 683 bans

47%

Dragon Knight

424 picks · 543 bans

50%

Bane

400 picks · 284 bans

58%

Pangolier

355 picks · 595 bans

52%

Puck

339 picks · 792 bans

57%

Storm Spirit

339 picks · 552 bans

56%

Ember Spirit

336 picks · 627 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% Brame

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total55% Brame

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct34:19

Brame 53%Team Bald Reborn 47%

The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 33:41.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo