Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
527 picks · 453 bans
Mars
458 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 543 bans
Bane
400 picks · 284 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
Puck
339 picks · 788 bans
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 552 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 69%
Hero pool strength50% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:23
Ybb Gaming 43%CDEC Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 37:42.
Game 2prediction correct16:21
Ybb Gaming 43%CDEC Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 33:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 57%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2