Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dreamerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Banesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Pucksignature
TaO · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 5 games
Tiny
Zxca · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 4 games
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
527 picks · 452 bans
Mars
457 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 542 bans
Bane
400 picks · 284 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
Puck
338 picks · 787 bans
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 552 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Dreamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:52
Gorillaz-Pride 44%Dreamers 56%
The model gave 56% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 1:10:54.
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Gorillaz-Pride 44%Dreamers 56%
The model gave 56% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 25:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteDreamers · 56%
Series resultDreamers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2