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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Happy Sealsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 5 games
20%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
rayy · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Moonlight · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Cys · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Jubei · 3 games
67%

Happy Seals

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 452 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
457 picks · 682 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 542 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
400 picks · 284 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 553 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
336 picks · 789 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 24%
Hero pool strength52% Happy Seals
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:42
Eternity 56%Happy Seals 44%
The model gave 56% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 1:13:57.
Game 2prediction missed20:49
Eternity 56%Happy Seals 44%
The model gave 56% on Eternity — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 47:17.
Game 3prediction correct46:39
Eternity 56%Happy Seals 44%
The model gave 56% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 1:04:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 56%
Series resultEternity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3