Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 9 games
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 8 games
Bane
5up · 7 games
Snapfire
Era · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Xibbe · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Era · 6 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
527 picks · 449 bans
Mars
460 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 542 bans
Bane
402 picks · 285 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 555 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
Puck
335 picks · 788 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Into The Breach 64%11Monkeyz 36%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 45:16.
Game 2prediction correct
Into The Breach 64%11Monkeyz 36%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 64%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2