Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Fusionwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTeam Saiyanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
523 picks · 448 bans
Mars
463 picks · 679 bans
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 544 bans
Bane
404 picks · 286 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 595 bans
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 561 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 629 bans
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 653 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Team Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Team Fusion 69%Team Saiyan 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 33:18.
Game 2prediction missed32:14
Team Fusion 69%Team Saiyan 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 34:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Fusion · 69%
Series resultTeam Fusion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2