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Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.

Team Empire

Tiny
Tiny
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Bane
Bane
633 · 20 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
jAMES · 20 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
37%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
21%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
633 · 12 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 448 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 681 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 542 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
406 picks · 287 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 594 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 562 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 629 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 651 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% MooN team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:24
MooN team 69%Team Empire 31%
The model gave 69% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 37:10.
Game 2prediction missed22:33
MooN team 69%Team Empire 31%
The model gave 69% on MooN team — the game was taken by Team Empire in 39:56.
Game 3prediction correct27:20
MooN team 69%Team Empire 31%
The model gave 69% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 35:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 69%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3