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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 447 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 683 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 543 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
408 picks · 287 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 594 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 565 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 629 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 653 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:6
Rune Eaters 19%Virtus.pro 81%
The model gave 81% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:18.
Game 2prediction correct20:13
Rune Eaters 19%Virtus.pro 81%
The model gave 81% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:52.
Game 3prediction correct24:15
Rune Eaters 19%Virtus.pro 81%
The model gave 81% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 81%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3