Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
antoha · 21 game
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 16 games
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 12 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
Bane
Hduo · 9 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
516 picks · 445 bans
Mars
462 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 543 bans
Bane
408 picks · 285 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 592 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 653 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:20
X3 46%cybercats 54%
The model gave 54% on cybercats — the game was taken by X3 in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyNattyNarwhal
JuggernautShigetsu
BeastmasterShergarat
PuckEgor
Ursanesfeer
TuskDkFogas
Zeusvelheor
RubickFezor
JakirosmN
MarciHduo
Game 2prediction missed
X3 46%cybercats 54%
The model gave 54% on cybercats — the game was taken by X3.
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 54%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2