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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Banesignature
y` · 15 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 12 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%

Xtreme Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Paparazi · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 445 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 682 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 543 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
408 picks · 285 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 592 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 565 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 653 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
LGD Gaming 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
51% · 163 games45% · 206 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
60% · 146 games46% · 7 games
HuskarPaparazi
Huskar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
45% · 155 games53% · 48 games
EnigmaELeVeN
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
50% · 135 games43% · 259 games
TinyPyw
Tiny
Warlock
Warlocky`
54% · 40 games54% · 119 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed27:39
LGD Gaming 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusNothingToSay
39% · 33 games53% · 119 games
Terrorbladelou
Terrorblade
Spectre
SpectreAme
44% · 34 games47% · 134 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerFaith_bian
56% · 27 games55% · 31 game
EnigmaELeVeN
Enigma
Weaver
WeaverXinQ
46% · 165 games50% · 47 games
Earth SpiritPyw
Earth Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
56% · 97 games56% · 25 games
WarlockDy
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2