Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingwin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Fusionloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
510 picks · 442 bans
Mars
458 picks · 680 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 541 bans
Bane
407 picks · 285 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 589 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 625 bans
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 652 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Ybb Gaming 44%Team Fusion 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 35:38.
Game 2prediction correct10:23
Ybb Gaming 44%Team Fusion 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 31:06.
Game 3prediction correct26:17
Ybb Gaming 44%Team Fusion 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 41:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Fusion · 56%
Series resultYbb Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3