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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
74%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bryle- · 9 games
89%

Felt

Axe
Axe
Zore · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
80%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
509 picks · 443 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
459 picks · 680 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 541 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
407 picks · 287 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 590 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 623 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 652 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:13
TSM 58%Felt 42%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
48% · 61 game29% · 3 games
Bounty Huntersolji
Bounty Hunter
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
68% · 17 games51% · 162 games
WeaverZore
Weaver
Puck
Puckbryle-
57% · 97 games47% · 57 games
Juggernautparadise'
Juggernaut
Tusk
TuskMoonMeander
44% · 35 games
Venomancer
VenomancerDuBu
35% · 12 games
Game 2prediction correct44:7
TSM 58%Felt 42%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 23:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTimado
47% · 70 games49% · 223 games
Tinysolji
Tiny
Razor
RazorSabeRLight-
41% · 60 games53% · 33 games
Phantom Lancerparadise'
Phantom Lancer
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerbryle-
51% · 53 games52% · 21 game
PudgeZore
Pudge
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDuBu
61% · 50 games
Marci
MarciMoonMeander
50% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 64%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2