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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 6 games
83%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 4 games
50%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 8 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Giant · 6 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Giant · 5 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
red2 · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 442 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
459 picks · 680 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 540 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
408 picks · 288 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 592 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 566 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 623 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 651 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:12
Evil Geniuses 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 32:22.
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Evil Geniuses 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 23:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 61%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2