ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 50 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 45 games
Marssignature
Ws · 45 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 41 game
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 40 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
Team Spirit
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 30 games
Tusksignature
rue · 29 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
657 picks · 818 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 589 bans
Tusk
469 picks · 406 bans
Warlock
463 picks · 311 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1067 bans
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 693 bans
Mars
380 picks · 618 bans
Shadow Fiend
379 picks · 986 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total62% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
Aurora Gaming 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerNightfall
InvokerLarl
Void SpiritMikoto
MuertaYatoro
UnderlordWs
SlardarCollapse
JakiroKaori
Shadow Shamanrue
HoodwinkMira
TuskPanto
Game 2prediction missed23:31
Aurora Gaming 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMikoto
Templar AssassinYatoro
MarciNightfall
LargoCollapse
EnigmaWs
Void SpiritLarl
WarlockKaori
HoodwinkPanto
TuskMira
Lionrue
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2