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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
paiN Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 29 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 28 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 18 games
33%

paiN Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 7 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 5 games
20%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
657 picks · 818 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 589 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 406 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
463 picks · 311 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1067 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 693 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 618 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
379 picks · 986 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:21
OG 52%paiN Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
49% · 291 game47% · 134 games
KezWits
Kez
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
50% · 251 game50% · 386 games
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsYopaj
48% · 408 games53% · 240 games
BristlebackFrank
Bristleback
Windranger
WindrangerTims
52% · 358 games50% · 378 games
RingmasterScofield
Ringmaster
Dazzle
DazzleSkem
50% · 124 games52% · 294 games
Shadow ShamanElmisho
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct52:21
OG 51%paiN Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckYopaj
51% · 467 games43% · 133 games
KezWits
Kez
Windranger
WindrangerNatsumi
47% · 399 games50% · 401 game
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordForce
56% · 243 games50% · 214 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Rubick
RubickTims
55% · 124 games47% · 637 games
JakiroElmisho
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskSkem
51% · 590 games51% · 438 games
Shadow ShamanScofield
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2