?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Arkosh Gaming

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
0%

Eternity

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 5 games
20%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
rayy · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Cys · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Jubei · 3 games
67%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
CarJua · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 437 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
457 picks · 685 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 537 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
410 picks · 290 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 593 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 569 bans
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 645 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 625 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Eternity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:34
Arkosh Gaming 49%Eternity 51%
The model gave 51% on Eternity — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 42:30.
Game 2prediction missed69:45
Arkosh Gaming 49%Eternity 51%
The model gave 51% on Eternity — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 57:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 51%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2