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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 26 games
69%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 19 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
59%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 27 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
657 picks · 818 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 589 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 406 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
463 picks · 311 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1067 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 693 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 618 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
379 picks · 986 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total53% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
Xtreme Gaming 48%Team Falcons 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
48% · 312 games49% · 370 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAme
51% · 464 games46% · 164 games
RazorATF
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
52% · 160 games57% · 393 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Warlock
WarlockxNova
48% · 528 games46% · 571 game
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanfy
57% · 468 games45% · 434 games
RingmasterSneyking
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Xtreme Gaming 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
55% · 227 games47% · 449 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Slardar
SlardarXxs
49% · 258 games52% · 384 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
46% · 565 games47% · 217 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
47% · 734 games55% · 575 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
53% · 324 games49% · 483 games
Shadow ShamanSneyking
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2