European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LiXO eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 42 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 40 games
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 40 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
Se · 33 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
LiXO eSports
Jakirooften banned
Garbat1y · 3 games
Tusk
aguwa · 3 games
Bristleback
zenica · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Rayx · 2 games
Kezoften banned
eva · 2 games
Marci
aguwa · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Rayx · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
655 picks · 820 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 588 bans
Tusk
469 picks · 404 bans
Warlock
462 picks · 311 bans
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1069 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 693 bans
Mars
382 picks · 618 bans
Shadow Fiend
379 picks · 985 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
Zero Tenacity 78%LiXO eSports 22%
The model gave 78% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaKami
Templar Assassineva
BristlebackNefrit
LeshracRayx
Ember SpiritWorick
Centaur Warrunnerzenica
Shadow DemondEsire
WarlockGarbat1y
JakiroMoOz
Shadow Shamanaguwa
Game 2prediction correct24:16
Zero Tenacity 77%LiXO eSports 23%
The model gave 77% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
InvokerRayx
BristlebackNefrit
Faceless Voideva
Void SpiritWorick
Dazzlezenica
JakiroMoOz
WarlockGarbat1y
Shadow DemondEsire
Marciaguwa
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 92%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2