Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Banesignature
Hyde · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Gabbi · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 439 bans
Mars
466 picks · 690 bans
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 543 bans
Bane
424 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 597 bans
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 583 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 629 bans
Sand King
336 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
T1 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on T1 — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:15.
Game 2prediction missed16:35
T1 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on T1 — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 56%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2