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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Sorryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 19 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 16 games
44%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 14 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
77%

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 44 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 36 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 33 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 30 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 29 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 439 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 690 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 543 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
424 picks · 289 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 597 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 583 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 629 bans
47%
Sand King
Sand King
336 picks · 495 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% No Sorry
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total52% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:30
Nemiga Gaming 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 53:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
41% · 20 games55% · 173 games
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
45% · 253 games54% · 126 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCorrupted
45% · 211 games54% · 35 games
Centaur WarrunnerLastHero-
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixHellscream
44% · 82 games57% · 80 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Pugna
Pugnaso bad
45% · 118 games57% · 270 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 2prediction missed30:12
Nemiga Gaming 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
57% · 67 games51% · 207 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
46% · 250 games44% · 205 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
44% · 200 games51% · 44 games
Centaur WarrunnerLastHero-
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
48% · 180 games49% · 113 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Monkey King
Monkey KingHellscream
54% · 280 games58% · 408 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 3prediction correct28:14
Nemiga Gaming 51%No Sorry 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackKiritych
51% · 25 games47% · 59 games
JuggernautKami
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
55% · 221 game45% · 206 games
Dragon KnightWorick
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
47% · 206 games57% · 80 games
Night StalkerLastHero-
Night Stalker
Enigma
Enigmaso bad
54% · 36 games50% · 85 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesHellscream
50% · 20 games46% · 78 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3