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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Summit Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 11 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 10 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 9 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 6 games
67%

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 8 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Unknown- · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
czy · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 440 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 691 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 542 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
427 picks · 288 bans
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 584 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 600 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 630 bans
47%
Sand King
Sand King
336 picks · 496 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Summit Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Army Geniuses 55%Summit Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdb-
52% · 61 game48% · 111 games
JuggernautUnknown-
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckAzur4
51% · 207 games51% · 399 games
Ember SpiritMercury
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarswoMy
57% · 314 games47% · 117 games
DawnbreakerNj
Dawnbreaker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
49% · 174 games51% · 284 games
Lionczy
Lion
Tiny
TinyVarizh
50% · 191 game40% · 36 games
LichTrazaM
Lich
Game 2prediction correct36:19
Army Geniuses 53%Summit Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdb-
43% · 52 games49% · 142 games
LeshracMercury
Leshrac
Viper
ViperwoMy
43% · 100 games48% · 129 games
MorphlingUnknown-
Morphling
Mars
MarsAzur4
48% · 435 games50% · 259 games
Dragon KnightNj
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingNARMAN
57% · 179 games49% · 287 games
Grimstrokeczy
Grimstroke
Mirana
MiranaVarizh
58% · 190 games51% · 139 games
Ogre MagiTrazaM
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 57%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2