Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 10 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Husky · 6 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Husky · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
498 picks · 437 bans
Mars
463 picks · 690 bans
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 536 bans
Bane
427 picks · 288 bans
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 584 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 597 bans
Chaos Knight
336 picks · 645 bans
Keeper of the Light
335 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 74%
Hero pool strength61% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Quincy Crew 48%nouns 52%
The model gave 52% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 47:18.
Game 2prediction correct35:22
Quincy Crew 48%nouns 52%
The model gave 52% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 44:35.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 52%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2