Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 17 games
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Miranasignature
Qupe · 8 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 7 games
Chensignature
jmn- · 6 games
Into The Breach
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 8 games
Bane
5up · 7 games
Snapfire
Era · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Xibbe · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Era · 6 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 435 bans
Mars
464 picks · 690 bans
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 535 bans
Bane
427 picks · 289 bans
Storm Spirit
366 picks · 585 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 599 bans
Sand King
337 picks · 498 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:44
IVY 45%Into The Breach 55%
The model gave 55% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenLowskill
TerrorbladeOtaker
ZeusMo13ei
PuckSupream^
BeastmasterMax
Sand KingXibbe
MiranaQupe
HoodwinkAri
Winter Wyvernjmn-
EnigmaKidaro
Game 2prediction correct14:26
IVY 45%Into The Breach 55%
The model gave 55% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightLowskill
Phantom LancerOtaker
Outworld DestroyerMo13ei
Keeper of the LightSupream^
DawnbreakerMax
UnderlordXibbe
MiranaQupe
EnigmaKidaro
Chenjmn-
HoodwinkAri
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 62%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2