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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 50 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 45 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 40 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 39 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 31 game
61%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 27 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
650 picks · 819 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 588 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 404 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
459 picks · 307 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1062 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 691 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 616 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
377 picks · 981 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Aurora Gaming 54%Team Falcons 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
46% · 236 games55% · 269 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Puck
PuckMikoto
49% · 366 games46% · 138 games
KezSkiter
Kez
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
44% · 123 games48% · 317 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
55% · 240 games51% · 350 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 205 games59% · 96 games
Treant ProtectorSneyking
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct40:3
Aurora Gaming 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciNightfall
47% · 204 games50% · 135 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
49% · 354 games55% · 123 games
LargoATF
Largo
Doom
DoomWs
48% · 136 games54% · 491 game
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskMira
49% · 420 games51% · 507 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 191 game44% · 49 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2