Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Happy Sealsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 434 bans
Mars
466 picks · 692 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 535 bans
Bane
430 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 601 bans
Storm Spirit
370 picks · 594 bans
Sand King
341 picks · 504 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 24%
Hero pool strength50% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:36
KBU.US 66%Happy Seals 34%
The model gave 66% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 59:23.
Game 2prediction missed31:39
KBU.US 66%Happy Seals 34%
The model gave 66% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 42:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 66%
Series resultKBU.US 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2