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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 1:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Amaru Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 9 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 8 games
25%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
38%

Amaru Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 4 games
0%
Windranger
Windranger
Genek · 4 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 358 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
350 picks · 643 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 341 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
316 picks · 229 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
309 picks · 301 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 426 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 393 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 59%Amaru Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 59%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1