Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axe
Zore · 10 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
solji · 4 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Giant · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Giant · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
red2 · 5 games
Bane
albinozebra · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 433 bans
Mars
467 picks · 693 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 535 bans
Bane
431 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 601 bans
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 594 bans
Sand King
341 picks · 504 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:40
Felt 43%5RATFORCESTAFF 57%
The model gave 57% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingparadise'
TimbersawLil_Nick
Void Spiritsolji
Bloodseekerdnm
DawnbreakerZore
PuckSpeeed
LichShoe
SnapfireGiant
50% · 88 games
Clockwerkalbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct10:27
Felt 44%5RATFORCESTAFF 56%
The model gave 56% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageparadise'
Medusadnm
Kunkkasolji
DawnbreakerLil_Nick
WeaverZore
PuckSpeeed
AbaddonShoe
ZeusGiant
46% · 79 games
Clockwerkalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 58%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2