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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelion Esport Clubloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
70%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 10 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
56%

Dandelion Esport Club

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 436 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 693 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 294 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 538 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 602 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 597 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
346 picks · 509 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
337 picks · 766 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Xtreme Gaming 51%Dandelion Esport Club 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:55.
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Xtreme Gaming 51%Dandelion Esport Club 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 51%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2