Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTeam Saiyanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 435 bans
Mars
474 picks · 693 bans
Bane
436 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 537 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 602 bans
Storm Spirit
374 picks · 598 bans
Sand King
348 picks · 511 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:35
CDEC Gaming 72%Team Saiyan 28%
The model gave 72% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 31:42.
Game 2prediction missed21:36
CDEC Gaming 72%Team Saiyan 28%
The model gave 72% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 37:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 72%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2