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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ФЕРЗИloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 9 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
33%

ФЕРЗИ

Lina
Linaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 3 games
67%
Zeus
Zeus
KingR · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
baraban · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KingR · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
baraban · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 438 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
474 picks · 698 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 295 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 535 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 600 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 601 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
350 picks · 515 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
341 picks · 760 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
X3 67%ФЕРЗИ 33%
The model gave 67% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magenesfeer
60% · 43 games55% · 23 games
Alchemistbaraban
Alchemist
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
50% · 98 games45% · 176 games
Sand KingUSHUSHUSH
Sand King
Enchantress
Enchantressvelheor
39% · 52 games49% · 99 games
Winter WyvernKingR
Winter Wyvern
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
58% · 57 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorsmN
55% · 48 games
Game 2prediction correct46:21
X3 65%ФЕРЗИ 35%
The model gave 65% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNattyNarwhal
43% · 30 games56% · 49 games
LinaUSHUSHUSH
Lina
Lone Druid
Lone DruidShergarat
little data59% · 7 games
Slardarbaraban
Slardar
Pudge
Pudgenesfeer
44% · 8 games56% · 34 games
RubickKingR
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidensmN
34% · 7 games
Windranger
Windrangervelheor
46% · 45 games
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 78%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2