Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
Tiny
CatYou · 7 games
Hoodwink
CatYou · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 437 bans
Mars
478 picks · 699 bans
Bane
440 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 536 bans
Storm Spirit
380 picks · 605 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 603 bans
Sand King
354 picks · 520 bans
Keeper of the Light
345 picks · 758 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:23
Invictus Gaming 59%LBZS 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 31:23.
Game 2prediction missed18:41
Invictus Gaming 59%LBZS 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 35:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 59%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2